Gold and Sunshine Coast prices to overtake Brisbane by 2024: QBE


A new Housing Outlook report predicts the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are on track to outperform Brisbane property prices by 2024.

QBE’s Australian Housing Outlook 2021-2024 prepared by BIS Oxford Economics shows that the future of Queensland’s residential real estate market is coastal.

QBE Lenders Mortgage Insurance CEO Phil White said the pandemic has influenced the future of residential real estate.

“A key theme of the report is changing migration patterns,” White said.

“With Australia’s international borders effectively closed, the usual influx of international migrants and the outflow of Australians do not have their usual impact on the housing market.

“And while cities have long been the center of commerce and community, many of us have made the decision to move from cities to regional cities.

“This shift in housing preference will be interesting to watch over the next few years.”

QBE Housing Outlook Estimates

Median house price June 2021 Estimate the median house price by 2024
Brisbane $ 684,000 $ 806,000
Golden Coast $ 815,000 $ 915,000
Sunny coast $ 830,000 $ 986,000

Brisbane

The median price of homes in Brisbane was $ 684,000 in June 2021, a 19% increase from the previous year, according to research from BIS Oxford Economics.

As price dynamics slow down and the prospect of higher interest rates looms, QBE said it expects the pace of growth in most markets to slow down.

Despite significant gains over the past 18 months, Brisbane will remain relatively affordable compared to Sydney and Melbourne, and the expected sustained interstate migration will help avoid a sharp slowdown in momentum in 2022/23 and 2023/24.

The QBE report predicts that a median home price of around $ 806,000 is expected by June 2024, which represents a three-year total growth of 18%.

Golden Coast

Although fueled by the adoption of remote work and extremely low interest rates in 2020/21, interstate migration will continue to fuel demand for housing on the Gold Coast.

The median price of homes on the Gold Coast increased rapidly in 2020/21, rising 22% to reach $ 815,000 in June 2021.

QBE predicts that the growth in the median house price is expected to continue its rapid growth and increase by 19% in the three years to June 2024, bringing the median house price to $ 915,000.

Recent domain data shows Surfers Paradise was Australia’s number one suburb for real estate sales over the past year, with Southport and Broadbeach also in the top 20.

Sunny coast

Migration figures to the Sunshine Coast paused briefly in 2020 as interstate borders were closed, but have now returned as remote working has grown.

In June 2021, the median home price on the Sunshine Coast was $ 830,000.

QBE expects these rapid population growth trends to persist into 2021/22, as long as the freeze on interstate arrivals in Queensland is short-lived.

Due to reduced travel restrictions and continued attractive borrowing terms, the median house price on the Sunshine Coast is expected to continue to slightly exceed price growth in Brisbane.

The QBE report predicts that prices will rise 13% in 2021/22, before slowing slightly over the next two periods, reaching a median price of $ 986,000 by June 2024.

No longer Brisbane’s “little brothers and sisters”

PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo said the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast are benefiting from a change in attitude towards work and lifestyle.

Sunshine Coast has always been a ‘little brother’ to Gold Coast and Brisbane, in terms of real estate focus and interstate real estate investing, ”Dr Mardiasmo told Savings.com.au.

“Living in Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast with a job in Brisbane used to be intimidating, but now it’s becoming the norm. More and more trade movements between the three local councils allow those who feel out of Brisbane to relocate to untapped areas on the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast.

“It is no surprise that there is currently an imbalance between demand and supply, which is more prevalent on the Sunshine Coast, especially when it comes to ready-to-sell freestanding homes / dwellings – there is a glaring difference here. “

Recent research from the PRD shows that over the past five years, the Gold Coast in particular has seen double-digit median price growth for units and homes.

Homes in the “middle ring” saw the strongest growth, up 32.5%, but the Gold Coast is still affordably priced compared to other cities on the east coast.

For the Gold Coast’s middle rim, 30.7% of homes were in the $ 699,999 price range, while 28.8% of inner rim suburbs were in that price range.

“I find it fascinating that the Gold Coast is the only major townhouse market – compared to Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth, Hobart and Canberra – that offers equal opportunities, in the inner and middle rings, in the price brackets. the most affordable. “Dr Mardiasmo told Savings.com.au in September.

“It looks like Gold Coast first-time homebuyers might be the luckiest among other first-time homebuyers across the country at the capital level.”

The 2021 median selling price for the inner crown suburbs was $ 825,000, while for the middle crown suburbs it was $ 888,000 – the first time the middle crown passed the inner crown. in five years.

An explanation of the Gold Coast’s middle and inner suburbs can be found at the bottom of this page.

Real Estate Price Forecasts.JPG

Source: QBE Australian Housing Outlook


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Image by Yulia Ryding via Unsplash

* PRD lists suburbs in the Middle Ring as: Broadbeach, Broadbeach Waters, Carrara, Clear Island Waters, Coombabah, Gaven, Helensvale, Highland Park, Hollywell, Hope Island, Mermaid Beach, Mermaid Waters, Merrimac, Nerang, Pacific Pines, Paradise Point, Robina, Worongary.

The suburbs of the first ring are: Arundel, Ashmore, Benowa, Biggera Waters, Bundall, Labrador, Main Beach, Molendinar, Parkwood, Runaway Bay, Southport, Surfers Paradise.

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